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What Opportunity is Best for You?

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What Opportunity is Best for You?
What Opportunity is Best
For Your Business?
Dr Peter Kelly
School of Science, Aalto University
What Can We Learn From Wile E Coyote ?
Analytical Thinkers PLAN
Analytical Thinkers Fire Up Excel
What do we teach?
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Traditional Roadmap
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Search for new high potential opportunity
Light bulb goes on
Write business plan
Raise money
Hire great team
Build product/offering
Orchestrate big launch
Achieve steady or hockey stick growth
Trade sale or IPO
Retire on beach
Does Traditional Roadmap Work?
– 98% of all new US businesses do not raise funding
from angels or venture capitalists
– 70% of new businesses start with less than
$20.000 in founding capital
– 1 in 6 of INC 500 fastest growing companies
started on less than $1.000 (including Dell
Computer 1984)
Does Traditional Roadmap Work?
• Only 6 of 1.000 business plans get venture funding
• Of those 60% go bankrupt
• Fewer than 2% of ventures reach an IPO
• Yet what do we teach? And how?
Search and Select Strategy
• Market already exists in some form
• Undertake detailed analysis to identify
opportunities
• Assess market potential on basis of
segmentation and past demand
• Assemble resources to exploit the opportunity
How Could You Predict?
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Budget airlines (Southwest 1971)
Microlending (Grameen Bank 1976)
Online book sales (Amazon 1995)
Internet search (Google 1998)
Social networking (Facebook 2004)
Intuitive Thinkers Ask Profound Questions
What Does Your Gut Tell You?
And here?
Or Here?
IDEA = ANYTHING
+ YOU
What is your
motivation or
passion?
• I want to start a business
• I want to be CEO
• This is a “hot” sector
• Investors like this space
• I want to be rich
• I am unemployed
• My boss says I should
I want to invest
my time doing
this because ...
OPPORTUNITY =
IDEA + ACTION
Opportunities Can Be Made
• Incomplete information
• Market that defies definition
• Consumers are not aware of their needs or
wants
• Confusing and conflicting signals abound
What Can We Do With Our Means?
What Are My Means?
• Who I am?
• Traits, abilities and attributes of entrepreneur/team
• What I know?
• Education, experience and expertise
• Who I know?
• Social networks
Risk Little, Fail Cheap
Affordable Loss
• Risking little implies thinking creatively about
how to bring cost of discovery down while …
• Determining your walkaway cost in terms of
time and money
• Time seems to be more expendable than money
• Depends on which type of money (earned income
versus found money)
• Returns are not solely monetary in nature
VIABLE VENTURE
= OPPORTUNITY +
COMMITMENT
Co-Create Solutions With Partners
Co-Created Solution
Co-Creation: Securing Partners
• Stakeholders bring new means to table
• Stakeholders invest what they can afford to
lose
• Open minded approach to the opportunity
• Buy-in as opposed to selling
• Look for partners with a “win-win” (reciprocation)
• Who deliver on their promises
• Who you like dealing with
The Element of Surprise
Who Could Have Guessed?
Could Be Transformed Into
Which Opens Up New Possibilities
Effectual Entrepreneurship
Holds Great Promise
• Why do we spend our time (means)
• What do we spend our time doing (affordable
loss)
• Who do we work with (co-creation)
• Open to and seeking out new perspectives
(surprise)
Some Insightful Reads
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